Current Market Review

The TSX Composite index was down 0.3% year-to-date as of May 18, 2018, and the S&P500 was up 4% in Cdn dollars for the same period. The 10-yr government bond yields in Canada and the US are currently 2.5% and 3.06% respectively. Oil keeps climbing and now sits at $71 a barrel. Our TSX and S&P arrows are up. Our third arrow based on seasonality could have turned down Apr 20 but remains up!

As mentioned in the last post, as oil prices rise so does the Canadian market and with the prospect of future increases the TSX should gain more support. (especially if pipeline issues can ever be resolved!)

In the US, there are many questions as to how the new trifecta of economic concerns: a rising dollar, spiking oil prices, and rising interest rates will affect the markets this summer. But despite this and the roller-coaster news of the up-and-down status of North Korean disarmament talks, China trade talks, Iranian treaty issues, probes into Russian meddling, and all the soap operas surrounding their controversial President, the US market runs on corporate earnings and global economic growth, both of which are growing well enough to justify a rising market.

Current Market Review

The TSX Composite index was down 5.8% year-to-date as of Apr 13, 2018, and the S&P500 is down 0.4% in Cdn dollars for the same period. The 10-yr government bond yields in Canada and the US are currently 2.4% and 2.8% respectively. Oil keeps climbing and now sits at $67 a barrel. Our TSX trend arrow remains down but the S&P arrow remains up. Our third arrow based on seasonality could turn down Apr 20 this week. (but this appears unlikely)

As oil prices rise so does the Canadian market and with the prospect of future increases the TSX should gain some support. In the US, after two months of headline wars and rumors of trade wars, the market can turn its attention to earnings reports this week and this should give the US markets support as well.

Current Market Review

The TSX Composite index was down 5.1% year-to-date as of March 2, 2018, and the S&P500 is up 3.28% in Cdn dollars for the same period. The 10-year government bond yields in Canada and the US are currently at 2.2% and 2.9% respectively. Oil currently sits at $61.25 a barrel. Our TSX trend arrow remains down as a result of the February correction but the US arrow remains up. Our third seasonality arrow will remain up at least until Apr 20 of this year.

The big news this week are Trump’s proposed tariffs and what will be the outcome of NAFTA. The US President’s move to raise tariffs on steel and aluminium is generally regarded as misguided, especially by his own party. US exports are currently running at their strongest level since Apr 2011, the US economy is booming in large part due to the tax reduction and tariff’s could lead to a trade war and hence endanger the current economic engine!

Aside from this the March-April calendar period has been the strongest combination of two consecutive months over the last 50 years. Let’s keep our fingers crossed the past history continues into the present!

Current Market Review

The TSX Composite was up 6% for the year ended Dec 31, 2017 and the S&P500 was up 11.28% in Cdn dollars. The 10-yr government bond yields in Canada and the US finished the year at 2.06% and 2.41% respectively. Oil closed at $60.4 US for a return of 12.5% in 2017. Our 3 trend arrows are all currently up and for the year the TSX arrow was down between Jul and Oct, the S&P500 arrow was up all year and our seasonal arrow was ‘long in the tooth’ having only turned down in late August but was up by Oct 20.

As for 2018, of course no one has a crystal ball but 1. Earnings projections are high and rising, 2. The number of shares is shrinking (thanks to buybacks) 3. Global growth is accelerating & 4. US tax reform could boost earnings and growth. There will be – and must be – corrections but this bull market appears to be continuing. Let’s keep our fingers crossed!

Current Market Review

As of Dec 1, 2017 the TSX Composite was up 4.9% year to date and the S&P500 was up 11.4% (in C$). 10-year government bond yields are 1.91% Canada and 2.36% US. Our 3 trend arrows are up.

Canada again had a better than expected  79,500 jobs added in November. The unemployment rate dropped to its lowest level since Feb 2008 at 5.9%.

In the US, GDP grew by 3.3% for Q3 up from 3.1% for Q2. And as the US continues its growth the question is will the Fed Reserve increase interest rates at its mid December meeting?

In any event let’s keep our fingers crossed that this global boom will keep the rally going until the spring anyway.

Current Market Review

As of Nov 3 the TSX was up 4.8% year to date and the S&P500 was up 9.8% (in C$). 10-year government bond yields are 1.95% Canada and 2.33% US. Our 3 trend arrows are now up.

Canada added a better than expected 35,300 jobs in October. Quebec led the gains with seven of 10 provinces reporting growth in October.

In the US, payrolls added 261,000 positions in October. A respectable figure when factoring in the upward revision of 90,000 positions in the preceding two months. A new Federal Reserve chair was appointed to replace Janet Yellen but as his policy views are similar to Yellen’s the market took the news in stride.

Current Market Review

As of Oct 6, 2017 the TSX was up 2.9% year to date and the S&P500 was up 6.1% (in C$). 10-year government bond yields are 2.13% Canada and 2.36% US. Two of our 3 trend arrows are now up.

In Canada, July’s GDP was released showing no gain. So slower growth does seem like a safe bet after recent gains. Canada’s manufacturing sector should feel some pressure from the C$ appreciation over the year and who knows what is going to happen to NAFTA!

In the US, GDP growth is continuing to grow and key statistics like the ISM are fueling continual optimism. We shall see.

Current Market Review

As of Sept 1, 2017 the TSX is down 0.6% year to date and the S&P500 is up 2.0% (in C$).  10-year government bond yields are 1.914% Canada and 2.167% US (30-yr yields are higher & so a positive curve). Our seasonal arrow has just turned down and so will stay down to at least Oct 20. Two of our three arrows are now down.

In Canada no one expected the blowout number for Q2 GDP that was released last week. At an annualized 4.5% it was the best quarterly report in 6 years and it caused the Bank of Canada to raise interest rates today by 0.25% to 1%. The economy is benefiting from consumer spending that is coming from strong job gains and higher disposable income that got an added boost from the changes of the federal child benefit program last year.

In the US, Q2 GDP also rose to a respectable 3% annual rate, again with consumer spending increasing. Job growth remains good with many people who had given up trying to find a job now joining the workforce.  Other indicators like the ISM index rose to 58.8 which is very positive.

So overall, everything seems to be coming up roses for economic growth statistics for the current quarter and looking forward. Let’s hope the rise in the Canadian dollar does not adversely affect our exports!

Current Market Review

The TSX lost 1% and the S&P500 gained 0.1% for the week ended July 7, 2017. Year to date the TSX is down 1.7% and the S&P500 is up 3.8% (Cdn $). The markets closed at 15027 and 2425 respectively.  The 10-year government treasury yields closed at 1.88% Canada and 2.39%US. Our Canadian market trend arrow has now turned down.

Canada’s economy saw widespread optimism across multiple indicators in June. GDP and employment numbers increased at levels rarely seen since the 2008-2009 recession. At the same time the Bank of Canada appears to be poised to start raising interest rates as early as this month. In the US the third rate hike for 2017 is still expected by the end of the year.

Current Market Review

The TSX Composite was down 0.6% for the week ended June 16, 2017 and is down the same amount 0.6% for the year. The S&P500 was up 0.1% for the week and is up 6.8% for the year in Canadian dollars. Yields for 10-year government bonds are sitting at 1.52% Can and 2.15% US. Our 3 trend arrows remain up.

The Bank of Canada governor hinted on Monday that interest rates could rise in Canada, which took everybody by surprise with a resultant increase in the Canadian dollar value. As was widely expected the US Federal Reserve raised its key interest rate to 1.25% last week.

 

Market Trend

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Ultimate Funds

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