Current Market Review

As of August 23, 2019 the TSX Composite was up 12% YTD and the S&P500 is up 11% YTD in Cdn dollars. The market is down a bit from our last post but the summer as usual is more volatile and rarely up which is also the case this year.

Bond yield curves in Canada and the US have turned negative or flat. (i.e 2 yr treasury / 10 yr treasury : Can 1.37 % / 1.17% and US 1.53% / 1.54%) So given this change in yields, and given that it’s inversion often signals a recession down the road, the markets have pulled back somewhat recently.

Oil closed at $54.17 on Friday, down from our last post in May but still up 19.3% for the year so far. The embargo on Iran initially caused prices to rise in the spring but prices have fallen as inventories continue to grow thanks to other nations and the US continuing to pump out large amounts.

Global equity markets endured another volatile week last week as the U.S.-China trade dispute escalated, with China announcing retaliatory tariffs, as it had promised and President Trump following suit by imposing more tariffs on China in response. Trump also ordered US companies to curtail business with China!

Our 2 trend arrows remain but our seasonal arrow turned down mid summer and so will remain down until the later half of October at least. Stay tuned!

Market Trend

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Ultimate Funds

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