Current Market Review

As of April 26, 2019 the TSX Composite is up 16% YTD and the S&P500 is up 15.7% YTD in Cdn dollars. Stocks are simply normalizing the abnormal performance in Q4 2018. Stocks today are where they were at the end of last September!

As of April 26, 2019, the bond yield curves in Canada and the US remain positive. (i.e 2yr treasury / 10 yr treasury : Can 1.55/1.69% and US 2.29 / 2.5%) So as a recession watch this is good.

Oil closed at $63.30 on Friday up 39.4% for the year so far. The embargo on Iran has caused prices to rise this year. But President Trump told reporters on Friday he ‘called up OPEC to bring prices down’. And sure enough prices fell sharply on Friday erasing all last weeks gains.

In the US the Fed’s favourite inflation indicator, rose at only a 0.6% annual pace in Q1 2019, which is incredibly bullish for continued low interest rates. Overall, it implies a “Goldilocks” environment of stable interest rates, low inflation and 3% GDP growth. We will see if it lasts but many feel we will see no recession danger in 2019.

Our 3 arrows are up as we head into the seasonally volatile summer period. Stay tuned!

Market Trend

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Ultimate Funds

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