Current Market Review

The TSX Composite index was down 4.6% year-to-date as of Oct 19, 2018, and the S&P500 was up 7.9% in Cdn dollars for the same period.

The “recession watch indicator” i.e. the spread between the 2-yr and 10-yr Treasury notes of Canada and the US continues to be positive. (i.e based on current yields of 1.6% / 2.5% Cda and 2.25% / 3.193% US). But 10 year bond yields have risen over 15% in the just the last month!

Oil sits at $69 a barrel. Our TSX and our seasonality arrows have now turned down as we enter the “good season”!

Rising bond yields, a down market in China overnight as well as international tensions with Saudi Arabia have had their effect on the markets so far. This time of the year usually signals an upbeat market with the World Series starting tonight, the holidays approaching and earnings being reported. We shall see if it works this time.

Market Trend

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Ultimate Funds

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