Current Market Review

Well what a six months it has been! Back on our last post March 4 the TSX was down 5.1% and the S&P500 was up 3.2% and the Covid Virus was coming! On March 27 the TSX was down 25.6% and the S&P500 was down 15.3%! As of last Friday the TSX was down only 2.1% and the S&P500 is up 9.5%. Oil went from $22 a barrel on March 27 to $43 a barrel today. And our dollar swung from $71.5 to $76.34 US today.

A V-shaped recovery? Yes but there have been some winners (ie. tech) and some losers. (ie. banks, airlines, entertainment)

What does the future hold for the markets? Well a vaccine would be nice! And “The market usually rises going into a US election with both candidates promising anything and everything. Even Joe Biden has said that he will not raise taxes on people making less than $400k per year or the 90% of businesses out there that are mom and pop and employ less than 50 people.”

Again we will keep our fingers crossed!

Current Market Review

The TSX and the S&P500 were up 0.6% and 0.8% for the week ended Aug 29, 2014. The indices now sit at 15626 and 2003 respectively. 10-year Government bond yields in Canada and the US now sit at 2% and 2.34%. Two of our three trend arrows remain green to the up.

Statistics Canada reported that overall GDP grew at an annualized 3.1% pace in the second quarter of 2014, the strongest growth rate since the third quarter of 2011.

In the US it was announced that durable goods orders jumped 22.6% in July. This robust level of orders is expected to fuel additional strength in manufacturing employment.

Elsewhere Europe is still suffering declines in consumer and executive sentiment. The situation with Russia is no doubt not helping. Many think that Europe may have to do some money printing if inflation continues to decline. We will see.

Current Market Review

The TSX and the S&P 500 were both up 1.2% for the week ended May 10, 2013.

The central bank (the Fed) in the US continues to print about $85 billion per month and many are talking that the Fed will have to map out a strategy to wind down this unprecedented 5 year bond buying. Harvard’s Professor Martin Feldstein wrote in The Wall Street Journal last week that the Fed’s bond buying spree has done little to boost GDP growth. Furthermore  Feldstein said that the Fed’s bond buying is helping boost US housing and stock prices, implying that asset bubbles are forming and the seeds of future inflation are being sown.

Two of our trend arrows are up. For the time being, the stock bull market remains intact as long as the Fed continues printing! But the summer is usually a volatile period. We shall see.

Current Market Review

The TSX was up 1.3% for the week ended Apri 26, 2013 and the S&P was up 1.7% for the same period.

Economic news from last week showed Germany and China both slowing. The US market continues to rise however as stock buybacks like  Apple’s continue to buoy the market. The widely-watched US monthly payroll report will be released tomorrow.

Two of our three trend arrows are now down which for some, following CAPS, has triggered a more conservative portfolio for the summer months. (The seasonality arrow cannot now turn up until Oct 20 of this year)

Market Trend

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Ultimate Funds

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